Guangshen Railway (601333): Costs weigh on performance and focus on railway reform
Core budget event: The company achieved revenue of 156 in the first three quarters of 2019.
100 million, an increase of 7.
1%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 8.
700 million, a decline of 9 per year.
2%, basically 0 benefits.
12 yuan, down 9 per year.
Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 54.
3 billion, an increase of 7.
4%, net profit attributable to mother 1.
1 billion, down 63 every year.
Passenger transport was refracted, and freight performance was dazzling.
In January-September 19, the company’s passenger shipments alternated twice.
4%, of which the third quarter quarter fell 7.
In terms of business, in the third quarter, Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity trains traveled to and from place 3.
6%, we 佛山桑拿网 believe that the company adopted the large capacity model and increased the number of cross-train EMUs in the same period last year to generate a high base; it is a long-distance vehicle alternative location.
3%; through trains have been significantly extended under the combined effects of traffic diversions and the Hong Kong incident57.
1%, but only 1 due to the proportion of passengers.
7%, a shock to income.
The macroeconomic environment has improved, and national railway freight operations have been expanded. In the first three quarters of 19, the company’s total freight volume increased by 7 as well.
4%, of which the freight volume in the third quarter was +11.
8%, receiving volume +11.
4%, sending volume +12.
Cost dragged down third-quarter results.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s operating costs increased by 8 per year.
4%, of which the same quarter +13.
4%, resulting in a temporary reduction in gross profit margin.
0 averages, 6 on average.
6 good to 4.
9%, we think that the cost items such as wages and equipment leasing fees are relatively large, and at the same time, railway maintenance has shortened, which usually occurs and the settlement is ahead in the second half.
Guangzhou-Shenzhen deep intercity shunt or limited.
Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity will open to traffic in November, and it is expected that the initial passenger flow diversion to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity will be limited, and the road network connection will bring some passenger flow.
The company has received a total of four land deposits and compensations for a total of 8.
4.8 billion US dollars, if the total revenue can be recognized during the year, contribute at least 500 million US dollars in net profit.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Considering the increase in business volume and cost growth, we cut the company’s net profit for 2019/20/21 to 15.3/11.
100 million US dollars, budget profit is 0.
19 yuan, corresponding to PE is 14.
9X / 19.
7X / 17.
The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail IPO marks an important step in the securitization of railway assets in China. The company is the core target of the railway reform to benefit from the speed.
78X, located at the bottom of history, is expected to be repaired. We maintain the “Buy” rating unchanged.
Risk reminders: macroeconomic growth rate, high-speed rail diversion, higher-than-expected costs, and less than expected railway reform.